Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season
July Week Five 05L.EDOUARD AoI: North Central Gulf of Mexico I haven't checked for model support but it looks very conducive for development there, i'd say starting tomorrow. A cluster is moving south and there's perfect high level outflow around the area. -Winter123 00:24, 28 July 2008 (UTC) :Ok no one else sees this. There is a symmetrical mid or low level circulation with good outflow and some convection, though it appears to be waning. We'll see how it is when we get the visible sat. back in the morning. -Winter123 04:41, 29 July 2008 (UTC) ::It's expected to move inland with no development, but it could bring some heavy storms to... NEW ORLEANS! 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:38, 29 July 2008 (UTC) :::It's now located near Alabama, and GFS actually predicts development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:22, 2 August 2008 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Whoa! What the hell just popped up in the Gulf of Mexico? This thing came from nowhere and jumped right to medium risk and a recon target. This is a little too close for comfort...although it's so close that if it does become something, I doubt it'll have much time to get very strong. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :I think it might be from the previous system in the Gulf, so please see above, under 91L. INVEST, which it has surprisingly become! 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC) You could sort of say this is the same system, or part of it. Expected to hit Texas or Louisiana, probably as a TD. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:28, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :Moderate risk of development by NHC. I agree with your assessment of a TD max. - Enzo Aquarius 04:20, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::What? How is this an invest? There's a single thunderstorm being hit with shear and dry air. Though if that thing moving over LA and the thing moving WNW over cuba combines with it it may have a chance. -Winter123 07:05, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::Well, someone seems to think more highly of it: TCFA. --Patteroast 10:23, 3 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Edouard Wow. Expected to hit the Houston area as a TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:00, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :And if this year (and last) are to be followed it'll become a hurricane right on the coast. -Winter123 23:49, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::From what I've seen with Dolly, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing become a hurricane now. This season is really throwing some curve balls. - Enzo Aquarius 23:58, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::Whoa, what the hell?! Edouard? 24 hours ago, this thing was nothing, now NHC says it has a chance to become a hurricane before it hits Texas. Man, that water in the Gulf is scary as hell this time of year. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:24, 4 August 2008 (UTC) ::::65mph Tropical Storm at landfall. - Salak 13:56, 5 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Edouard Yet to clear Houston and it's already dropped to a Tropical Depression. - Salak 20:53, 5 August 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AoI: Off Guinea This one might follow 98L in its tracks. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:51, 31 July 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Supposed to head into the south Caribbean as a cat 1. Yikes! Here comes another 'un. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:25, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :This one's a ways off from being anything. It's a wait-and-see kind of invest. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:48, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::Low risk of development, but lots of room for it to do so. Wait it out, could turn into something easily. - Enzo Aquarius 04:25, 3 August 2008 (UTC) August Week One 99L.INVEST Yay, NHC predicts medium-risk for development, developed from the northern remnants of 98L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:36, 1 August 2008 (UTC) :It's not remnants, it IS 98L. Tell them to look at a satellite archive and see how stupid they are. -Winter123 04:33, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::Total model dissagreement here. Some models head it into the open sea and toward Europe, while others head it as far west as the eastern Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:27, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :::Somewhat impressive. I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes something. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Although there's a moderate risk of development, satelite imagery shows...literally a few light rotating clouds? - Enzo Aquarius 04:24, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Looks like it's developed a little cloud cover over its circulation. Still doesn't look hugely promising that it'll end up doing anything. --Patteroast 13:54, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Based on WV id say it has no chance, at least for 3 days or so. -Winter123 22:12, 3 August 2008 (UTC) Why was it dropped again? Its north of PR and holding together and headed for Florida. Watch out this could pull a katrina. -Winter123 18:31, 5 August 2008 (UTC) :It could what??! All models (12/12) predict its remnants to turn northwards before hitting Florida. In fact even the remnants of 90L has a 5x better chance of pulling a Katrina. Please do not make such cataclysmic pronouncements! I only predict ten re-Katrinas for the entire rest of this century. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:10, 5 August 2008 (UTC) ::only 10? yeah id like to see 10 storms hit new orleans as a cat 3 in the next 100 years. Unless you mean 10 hurricanes hitting FL in 100 years, then thats possible but unlikely. 10 TS's is likely. -Winter123 18:40, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :::I recall only five in the entire historical database that had any significant effect on the New Orleans area (1893, 1909, 1915, Betsy and Katrina). This thing's just scattered showers right now and wind shear sucks. I personally try to stay away from the apocryphal, but that's just me. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:29, 7 August 2008 (UTC) 92L. INVEST AoI: Cape Verde The ITCZ has been tooting endlessly! Wait and see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :I'm not sure if this is the same but this looks like Bertha #2. Same location and a well defined MLC at least. I'd be surprised to see this NOT become a hurricane. -Winter123 18:37, 6 August 2008 (UTC) ::Huh? It looks kind of weak right now. The system near Mali, however, is predicted to strengthen by many models. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:00, 7 August 2008 (UTC) :::Yeah it died. See below. -Winter123 02:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Hmm, I guess it un-died. SHIPS predicts a cat.2, supposed to head near Hispanola, medium-risk on TWO. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:33, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :High risk from NHC now. Most models seem to send this over Hispaniola, Early cycle intensity guidence suggests a Cat 1, poss a Cat 2 after 120 hours, and still intensifying. - Salak 00:32, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::NHC's got it back at medium risk, but it's showing up on the danger graphic. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 19:18, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :::Well, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a TS landfall on Anguilla on the 14th, a cat. 1 landfall on Great Inagua Island on the 16th, a cat. 2 landfall on Andros island on the 17th, a cat. 3 landfall on the 18th near Miami, then a landfall near Spring Hill, Florida as a cat. 3 on the 19th, then a cat. 4 landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 21st, then a cat. 2 landfall in New Jersey on the 22nd. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:10, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::::"AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY." - Salak 03:00, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Ohh, this is bad: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early2.png. And the forecast track points it toward south Florida. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:49, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Well the latest strength forecast isn't ideal, but it still only rates it as a strong Tropical Storm. It could be a lot worse. I think I'd be more worried about the potential impact in Haiti and the Carribean than in Florida. - Salak 10:35, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::High-risk now, and I think Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, and the entire US eastern seaboard up to Connecticut need to watch this closely as well. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:44, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Recon aircraft is being sent out today, so we may have something later on. - Enzo Aquarius 16:02, 12 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Off Georgia (US state) CMC, GFS, and mm5fsu33a all predict something significant out of this, entering the Gulf Stream and strengthening. You can't say for sure that the other models ''don't develop something out of this, either. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:53, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :What????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? West Virginia is 100% sunny, and about 6 hours ago when you posted that, it had some high clouds that blew away. You're posting 100 aois every day with the hope of one being right. stop it. But if you're referring to the trough moving towards bermuda, i'd say 2% chance. Still not AoI worthy. -Winter123 18:42, 6 August 2008 (UTC) ::Winter, he's doin' it for attention, just ignore him. If we ignore the silly stuff, hopefully he'll get sick of it and quit. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC) :::What I meant was this (the system coming off of South Carolina/Florida at 60h), and also note the thing coming off of Africa at 90h, although since nobody likes those, I'll just stop posting them until they hit a coastline, okay? 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Yeah i see that, but how is that west virginia? If you said something like Potential AoI: Florida 60 hours" it would make more sense. What is forecasted on that model doesn't even exist yet. It's the tail end of a front that will spin up when it sits over the gulf stream. And about african waves. Their presentation over land has NO impact on how they will do in the water. I even believed a few of your posts but then they died the next day. So just wait and see. It's not like theres land out there anyway -Winter123 02:10, 8 August 2008 (UTC) :::::That model appears to be forecasting future overall weather patterns and in analyzing those weather patterns foresaw the formation of areas of low pressure or disturbed weather. These systems don't exist yet, but this particular model thinks they will. I prefer waiting until a disturbance actually exists before I start postulating on what it might or might not do. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:54, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::I like to call it backtracking, in which I play the forward animation, and when the system appears, I slowly rewind it and follow the pre-system until it comes to its initial position at 0h. I do this becasue I often also track thunderstorms on radar to see where they originated and tropical cyclones' remnants ''after they dissapate. Now, let's shift your attention to the East Pacific, where I recently succesfully predicted using AoIs: Kika, Hernan, 95E, and 96E; not to be outdone, Eric (sky) also predicted 93C and 94E. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Get over yourself! EP storms are very easy to predict. They spin off the itcz in a very easily distinguishable cluster, become an invest, then move WNW and die in cold water. -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Looking at the latest CMC run, it merges what's left of 99L with this system (over North Carolina), and also turns what looks like the remnants of Edouard into a hurricane off the US east coast, and also turns what's left of the AoI near Cape Verde and that system over Africa into two new systems. The tropics have exploded! 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:31, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::There are NO remnants of edouard! It died over the NM/TX border, if you check satellite archives you will see this -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Now that it finally exists, I've re-named it. Only CMC gives it a good forecast, but there are more expected to follow, and even the remnants of Edouard might develop. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC) Well, you're right, an area of low pressure now exists in the western Atlantic but it's forecast to head northeast and the wind shear is abyssimal up that way, blowing in excess of 50 knots. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:28, 9 August 2008 (UTC) What storm off Georgia? There's clear skies. Use your eyes man! The ULL over Toronto has a better chance than "off georgia". -Winter123 16:24, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :Told ya the wind shear was a bitch. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:50, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::It's headed up into cold water without strengthening, but now many models predict development out of the low near Texas/Oklahoma. I'm not ready to post an AoI though because as per request so I'll wait until it hits a coastline. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:48, 12 August 2008 (UTC) 93L.INVEST AoI: Cape Verde This finally exists as well, with GFS giving it the best forecast and developing several systems. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: W of Cape Verde NHC has this at medium-risk, models give it the best chance out of the three systems. GFS even turns it into what looks like a cat. 3!! 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:35, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :Dropped to low risk, the AoI chasing it (see immediately above?) has been made medium risk now though. - Salak 00:34, 11 August 2008 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Looks like two of the AoIs (Cape Verde and W of Cape Verde) have sort of merged... NHC puts the whole thing at medium risk of development and that "SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 13:14, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :Showing up on NHC's danger graphic, now. "THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO". --Patteroast 19:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::Looks like a TD now! I'd be surprised if this isnt a TD at 5 and TS at 11, and Hurricane within 2 days of that. -Winter123 19:40, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :::Huh? It doesn't look ''that developed. Well, anyway, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a pass near Bermuda as a cat. 3 on the 18th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Newark on the 20th. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::::It's got a nice rotation to it and conditions seem to be ripening up. We've got ourselves a couple of troublemakers out there and the models point them both at Florida, and being located where they are, I don't like it when the models start saying that. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:54, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Which models are you looking at? Just been looking at these and they seem to have "fishspinner" written all over this system. Of course, it's still early days. - Salak 10:32, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::CMC and GFDL come close to putting it at a bullseye for Bermuda (the astronomical name for bull's eye, by the way, is Aldebaran, the brightest star in Tarus). GFS keeps it weak but heads it for south Florida. I personally think that Bermuda, and the north American east coast from North Carolina to Newfoundland need to watch this closely. Why the east coast? Should I even say it? High pressure variations, conflicting steering currents, and Fu******. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:56, 12 August 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: Southwest Caribbean NHC has it at low-risk, shower activity has diminished, might head into EPac, might contain remnants of 90L, likely to follow that Costa Rica ITCZ system. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:05, 12 August 2008 (UTC) NOAA august forecasts http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080807_hurricaneoutlook.html In short, 14-18 named (12-16 in May forecast), 7-10 'canes, (6-9 in May), 3-6 majors (2-5 in May). 85% chance of above-average instead of 65% in May. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:06, 8 August 2008 (UTC) RESPONSE TO INVEST 99.L IS OVER FLORIDA-MYSTERIOUS PREDICTIONS AHEAD. :Here's my revised prediction for the year, based on what already happened, but will likely be less accurate than the NOAA forecast: 20 tropical storms, of which 1 is subtropical and 1 not discovered until the re-analysis; 2 TDs which never become named; 9 hurricanes, of which 5 are major and 1 cat. 5; 4 landfalling hurricanes, of which 3 make US landfall; 2 retired storms; 7 Cape Verde storms; 4 storms whose remnants hit S. Ontario; and 13 landfalling storms. However, my predictions will probably be massively incorrect. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:18, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::Given the current active trend, I see an active year, but not that active. I say 16 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major ones, no subtropical or Cat 5s, 4-5 US landfalls, 2-3 landfalling US hurricanes but more hurricane landfalls elsewhere and 1-2 retired names. I actually think this might be a bit aggressive. The big variable for me is late season activity; will this active trend be able to extend into October. It did in 2005 but did not in 2004 (only three storms forming after September, only Matthew was of tropical origin). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:36, 9 August 2008 (UTC) Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF ..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :Ooh, grown-up toys, yay! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:13, 7 August 2008 (UTC)